Humans driving, carrying, and emplacing robots that operate fully autonomously will be the hallmark of the next 50 years of war. Focusing on local firing-sensor/counter-sensor technology now will enable us to be significantly ahead of what happens next. With overhead EM-defeat UAS, any use of EM spectrum will be responded to with accurate counter-fire. Similarly, any movement in the open will be detected from overhead by loitering UAS and destroyed with IDF. Destroying enemy UAS and keeping yours in the air will be a priority.
While the theories of sensor defeat warfare only describe sensor/sensor-enabled action, the isolation of communication, decision making, and movement are critical parts of this new model. Here we will describe the fundamentals of comms, decision making, and movement.
No matter how advanced robotics become, we are likely 40+ years out from creating a robot with the same physical utility and adaptability as the average Marine. No single robot will ever be able to beat the ability of a Marine to carry 80 pounds of kit over any terrain for a week without resupply. This is a fact unless we fundamentally change battery technology. Similarly, solar power will require major breathroughs if we expect it to ever have the ability to recharge robots in a meaningful way. Robots are able to bring their own batteries around, but that lowers their capacity, which requires more batteries, which.... Additionally, recharging batteries will require a generator. Generators are not mobile and targeting generators will be a priority of any organization fighting robots.
Beyond that, humans will be better drivers for quite some time as well. Automomous vehicles are a lot harder problem than autonomous turrets in a war zone.
This leads me to the statement that human machine pairing will likely be dominant for a very long time. A Marine wearing a backpack that is capable of target acquisition, aiming, and firing will defeat another human in a fair gunfight nearly every time. If you have to add a human-in-the-loop due to ROE, that Marine will still win consistently, but will be at less of an advantage even though all they have to do is pull the trigger. If you have a human-in-the-loop in a gunfight against a robot, the human will lose, every single time.
Onboard, local processing and decision making systems beat centralized processing and decision making systems at the tactical level. Attempting to teach autonoumous operational excellence at the tactical level is significantly more difficult. Having humans around to focus on operational requirements while robots shoot things is a significantly easier proposition.
Comms will be between robots and humans. Video feeds in particular, but any streaming data will be a significant risk to any emitting unit. As described above, EM-defeat UAS will be devestating as long as they are fielded and units transmit continuously. This will require something that looks like burst transmission, but even that could be dangerous as counter-EM fires become more prevalent. EM-defeat UAS cueing mortars/artillery will be terrifyingly effective in the next war.
Sacrificial TX will become a thing. In order to send out a message, either to Higher Headquarters or other units in the area, there will need to be decisions made to broadcast on an EM denied battleground. The likely way to do this is to send out UAS with antenna and have them fly to height where they will blast off the information, or by leaving a radio device somewhere with a timer and giving units time to get out of the way before it begins TXing. In an EM denied area, counter-fire for use of spectrum should be expected within seconds of TX.
The majority of comms should be very short range or wired. This will enable TX without worrying about counter EM. For human-in-the-loop, either the human is wired in at the location or there can be no counter-EM capabilites fielded by the enemy. Without one of these being true, those devices will not be effective.
While TX will be considered dangerous, receiving (RX) will be safe. That means that longer range TX from outside zone of threats can be accomplished to broadcast information to friendly units without putting them at risk. This will be a one way communication but using it effectively will be very important.
Humans driving, carrying, and emplacing robots that operate fully autonomously will be the hallmark of the next 50 years of war. Focusing on local firing-sensor/counter-sensor technology now will enable us to be significantly ahead of what happens next. With overhead EM-defeat UAS, any use of EM spectrum will be responded to with accurate counter-fire. Similarly, any movement in the open will be detected from overhead by loitering UAS and destroyed with IDF. Destroying enemy UAS and keeping yours in the air will be a priority.
If you have questions, comments, concerns, or funding, hit me at d.m.devey@gmail.com.